Part 2: Long-term trends
We look ahead to survey the key trends that will be dominating quantum computing research in the new year and beyond. Part 2 focuses on the long-term trends
In thisconcluding instalment of a two-part series on Quantum Computing trends, we discuss the mid- to long-term possibilities in the domain.
Quantum trends over next 10 years
- The world shall witness clear year-on-year developments that will transform quantum computing to a fully commercial and mainstream model. In fact, this is what all the players are focussing on right now. There are clear indications that within a decade we will have access to utility-scale quantum computing, delivering transformational capabilities to end-users.
- It is almost certain that beyond the near-term we will definitely have access to scalable and error-corrected gate-model quantum systems. Quantum hardware will significantly improve in scale, quality, and speed. Together with research in error mitigation and error correction this will lead to advances towards fault tolerant quantum computers of increasing scale.
- In keeping with the above, there will be broad adoption across a wide variety of industry sectors, leading to life-changing products and disruptive changes to the markets.The possibilities of quantum computing are too wild to predict the exact nature of future impacts right now, but experts agree that over a decade such changes are bound to be extensive.
- In terms of qubit power, we shall see 100 logical qubits being easily crossed and the race for 300 logical qubits will be on. And the expectation at that stage will be nothing less than approaching quantum advantage via fault-tolerant, error-corrected qubits with high fidelity and coherence.
- Widespread deployment of secure quantum communication networks is almost a certainty over the next ten years. Cryogenically integrated quantum computing and HPC systems with local quantum networks are a strong possibility too.
- Quantum computing will be widely used in areas with large optimization problems – like logistics and industrial organization. It should not be too much to expect off-the-shelf software packages for solving quantum optimization problems by then.
- Quantum-safe cryptography, including post-quantum public key infrastructure and certified QKD networks, will be deployed across main digital platforms in all probabilities.
- New mixed technologies will continue to be experimentally developed as physical support for quantum computing. Over time and with refinement these will prove to be increasingly viable.
- An interesting area to watch out for could be quantum-enhanced inertial navigation systems that would operate independent of traditional GPS technologies.
- Another emerging area of research would be quantum sensing technologies, which would have far-reaching consequences for several industry sectors.
- Owing to the massive computing powers of quantum systems, it will be possible to create practical and highly efficient quantum simulation of molecular structures. This will have far-reaching impacts in various industries – from manufacturing to pharmaceuticals.
- Beyond 2025, convergence of multiple emerging tech like Quantum and Metaverse would provide new use cases and business models. Quantum computers will also be increasingly used to accelerate Cloud-based tasks and activities.
- The immense computing powers derived from qubits could lead to the emergence of new types of algorithms to suite new problem-solving approaches.
- Some experts predict that within a decade we might witness the first ‘quantum war’ where governments as well as bog-time private enterprises with quantum capabilities will engage in a tussle over respective interests. The use quantum computing is such strife could impact digital systems worldwide – and lead to further fractions in an already-divided world order.
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